Cuomo’s choice to ban fracking driven by science, politics

Tonight, I was scheduled to cover a town board meeting in Windsor, New York, where officials were going to review a plan to change their zoning to allow fracking. The process for a zoning change promised to be long and contentious, and was necessary in light of a recent court ruling putting the decision of whether and where to drill in the hands of local governments.

Things changed dramatically this afternoon, when Governor Andrew Cuomo announced that he would ban shale gas development statewide due to unacceptable health risks. Cuomo’s position, backed by a long-awaited report from the state Department of Health, is a departure from his earlier position that he would allow fracking where local governments favored it. Reporters, pundits and the public they serve are still getting their minds around Cuomo’s emphatic decision, which came after more than six years of policy review. While it puts the matter to rest, many questions remain: What are the legal consequences? Do industry lawyers and supporters, who have been beaten at every turn in their efforts to bring shale gas to New York, have another challenge in them? Or is this the end of the line?

Those answers will come soon, but apparently, from my conversations with sources and a press-release from the Joint Landowners Association of New York, not tonight. The news of the hour is that, after a six and a half-year journey, fracking is dead on arrival in New York. Along that line, I share my response to a request by Andrew Revkin, author of New York Times  Dot Earth, for a "what just happened" analysis. (Revkin’s compilation of reaction from many informed sources can be found here.)

Cuomo’s decision is consistent with his progressive politics that got him to where he is now. It's a bold move and I optimistically take it as sincere attempt to overcome the inertial forces of fossil fuel dependency. Success here could add considerably to his legacy. But he has much more to do. The fracking ban needs to be accompanied by practical reforms and initiatives in energy development & consumption. How much longer will New York City residents have to rely on Fuel Oil as their primary source of heat? What about coal burning plants? I have written about the answer to these questions by a group of scientists and professionals that have contributed to the credibility of the anti-fracking movement. I offer that post again here.)

So why did it take six and a half years? Science takes time. Establishing risks of high volume hydraulic fracturing and the new era of on shore drilling it has enabled is especially difficult because shale gas development is relatively new. The industry controls most of the information and has plenty of legal, scientific and political wherewithal to challenge any conclusions that don’t work in its favor.

Science is part of the calculus. But despite what Cuomo would like us to believe, scientists don’t make these kinds of decisions. The full equation is Science + politics = policy. Cuomo finally got tired of being hounded on the issue by his political base. The movement in New York against shale gas was relentless and it was focused on him. At one point, he told Susan Arbetter, host of Capitol Press Room, that it was the most effective political action campaign he had seen. (I will link to that interview as soon as I find it, but I wanted to get this post up right away.) Activists, both institutional and grass roots, promised to step up their efforts if Cuomo allowed even a single well.

The Home Rule decision by the state’s high court in June, and the depressed price of natural gas made a decision politically easier. Cuomo would have a hard time taking the perceived riches of fracking from landowners back when landmen were at their doors with big checks in hand. Nobody is currently seriously looking at shale gas exploration, much less development, in New York with gas prices as low as they are and the encumbrances of Home Rule.

New York has become a showcase for the anti-fracking movement, and Cuomo's decision today has raised the movement's stature nationally. But it’s also important to remember that Cuomo’s decision is the end-point of a process that started 6-plus years ago - before frack was a bad word. As recounted in my book, Under the Surface, the moratorium issued by Governor Patterson in July, 2008 had nothing to do with organized fractivists, who did not appear on the scene until after Josh Fox’s movie Gasland two years later. New York’s moratorium was the direct results of landowners posing reasonable questions in public hearings about how the state was prepared to govern shale gas development. Six and half years later, Cuomo’s actions have provided the answer: it wasn't then, and it isn't now.

New York’s high court upholds Home Rule bans ... Decision complicates natural gas prospects

It’s settled. There will be no fracking in New York communities such as Dryden and Middlefield – serene and scenic places that have passed rules that find shale gas development incompatible with local land use ordinances.

The three-year battle over jurisdictional control over the industry ended today when the New York Court of Appeals upheld lower court decisions that cedes control over where and if shale gas development can happen from state to local governments. That’s a landmark victory for Home Rule advocates, including residents of more than 170 upstate communities that have passed moratoriums or bans on the controversial process.

But the future of fracking in the Empire state remains more unsettled than ever. All of the communities with fracking bans happen to be outside areas with the strongest prospects for shale gas development. In Southern Tier counties bordering the booming gas fields in northern Pennsylvania, many local governments either support fracking, or have no enforceable policy to prevent it. For every place like Dryden, there is a place like Sanford, a rural community near the Pennsylvania border that sits over 50,0000 acres of the Marcellus Shale, for which XTO Energy – a subsidiary of Exxon Mobile – has paid farmers $110 million just for the chance to test.

Sanford has no land use restriction, and is governed by a town council eager to see  rigs and roughnecks role across the Pennsylvania border and clear pads in the meadows, fields and woodlots of Southern Tier farms. And according to some who have been engaged in the fight since it began with the leasing rush of 2008, the prospect of drilling in these places is more imminent following today’s court ruling.

The court decision in effect provides legal sanction to a plan proposed by Governor Andrew Cuomo in the summer of 2012 to begin issuing permits on a trial basis in areas where communities and industry favor development. As reported by Danny Hakim of the New York Times in June, 2012: “Cuomo’s administration is now trying to acknowledge the economic needs of the rural upstate area, while also honoring the opposition expressed in some communities, and limiting the ire of environmentalists, who worry that hydrofracking could contaminate groundwater and lead to other hazards.”

Walter Hang, a policy analyst who runs Toxic Targeting, an environmental data firm in Ithaca, said Cuomo’s plan from 2012, combined with today’s court ruling, moves New York state a step closer to fracking in these places. “Today’s decision serves up the Southern Tier on a silver platter to allow shale gas development to begin,” he said. “Sure, it prevents fracking in some areas. But it allows it in the five counties along the Southern Tier where it’s most likely to begin. It’s the classic double-edged sword.”

Cuomo’s plan in 2012 to begin fracking in certain localities but not others drew support for those pinning the promise of economic development on the drilling industry, and drew rallies and protests by anti-frackers, who characterized the fracking trials as “sacrifice zones.” Cuomo has been mostly silent on the issue since then.

Not everybody shares Hang’s outlook. Some anti-fracking activists expect that New York’s ruling will not only discourage shale gas development in New York but will also encourage other municipalities throughout the country to establish land use restrictions. (See comments of Mary Ann Sumner, the Dryden Supervisor who helped organize the ban.)  And Brad Gill, executive director of the Independent Oil and Gas Association of New York, called the court decision “one more nail in the coffin” for fracking in the state. Gill’s view, often echoed by other industry supporters, is that drill operators will be less likely to commit capital to area that lacks regulatory uniformity and predictability. There is truth to both of those views, but they overlook the fact that the industry, first and foremost, will follow the geology. Wildcaters, in particular, are likely to seek out niches in unexplored territories, like the Southern Tier of New York.

As with most policy calculations, science and law are fundamental factors, but politics will be the decider.  The Legislature could pass a bill clarifying ambiguous language over the state’s role in extraction operations on which the Home Rule case was built. It’s also possible that the Legislature could ban fracking altogether, although anti-fracking bills passed repeatedly in the Assembly over the years are yet to fly in the Senate.

For now the decision remains firmly in the hands of the governor, who can at anytime enact or withdraw the policy review of fracking, called the Supplemental Generic Environmental Impact Statement. The 1,000-plus page document is as complicated and bureaucratic as its name suggests,  and it's been on hold for years.  Don’t expect that to happen before election. Rocking the boat on this hypersensitive issue would certainly alienate the governor’s progressive base. But after election-day, he has plenty of politic wiggle room and, with today’s Court of Appeals ruling, a clearer view of the legal landscape.

NY’s fracking future hinges on opaque health review Process clouded by secrecy, group sues to open records.

It was one year ago that state officials added a twist to the protracted controversy over whether and where to allow fracking in New York. National news reports in August and September of 2012 suggested that a decision to permit fracking in certain areas was imminent by or shortly after Labor Day. Labor day came and went, and instead of a decision on fracking, we got an announcement from DEC Commissioner Joe Martens that he would ask the health commissioner to assess whether the administration’s four year environmental assessment on which permitting would be based had sufficiently covered the potential for health problems. To do this, the Department of Health hired three outside specialists to critique the state’s draft review – a 1,500-page document called the Supplemental Generic Environmental Impact Statement - -and make recommendations about where to go from there.

The dilemma in New York, which sits over the Marcellus and Utica shales, is emblematic of a global controversy involving future energy sources, the economy, and public health: Is fracking safe and how do we know?

Now, a year after Martens announced the health review, things are no clearer, and in fact the health department’s involvement and ensuing events have made the outlook for shale gas development in New York foggier than ever. The Cuomo administration has released no time-frame, protocol, or scope for the health review, nor has it been willing to release records detailing the mechanics of the administrative directive. The three outside experts hired to make key assessments -- Lynn Goldman of George Washington University, John Adgate of the Colorado School of Public Health, and Richard Jackson of UCLA — are bound by contracts that include a clause prohibiting them from disclosing or discussing the proceedings or records involved.  (Their contracts expired in May, which means their work finished five months ago.)

In short, the public has been shut out of this process. The reasons for this are easily understood if not easily defensible. Over the last five years, the DEC has submitted for public review two drafts of the SGEIS, and one draft of proposed regulations. Those documents became lightening rods for criticism from anti-fracking activists, who used the formal public comment process for each to marshal an impressive display of opposition. The effort yielded protests, rallies, petitions, and (collectively) hundreds of thousands of written comments that gave the governor a taste of the anti-fracking movement’s considerable grass roots organization and effectiveness in New York, and posed a consuming work load for agency staff. Given this past result, it’s a fair guess that the administration intended the health review as a way to shore up the SGEIS’s viability, but not as a vehicle for more paralyzing public criticism. Regardless of intentions, the administration can’t keep it under wraps forever, and perhaps is already beyond the limits of its legal rights.

A process unanchored to any time line, visible policy protocol, or public framework has supported critics’ claim that the so called health review is little more than political cover for Cuomo to avoid a decision on fracking. Although complaints along these lines from both industry supporters and anti-frackers have been loud and clear, no parties have legally challenged Cuomo’s approach…  Until now.

Last week, the Seneca Lake Pure Waters Association, represented by attorney Rachel Treichler, filed a complaint with the state Supreme Court seeking a hearing on the matter in October. SLPWA is seeking state records to assess “what factual information was being collected and reviewed by DOH and the instructions given to DOH staff regarding the DOH health impact study.” The action follows the organization’s unsuccessful attempts to view records related to the study under the Freedom of Information Law.  The DOH denied the agency’s initial request on April 4 and also its appeal May 16. The grounds for the denial: the information comes under the category of “exempt intra-agency or inter-agency records,” according to the DOH response.

It’s a response that advocates find ridiculous, and the SLPWA appeal spells out why:

Frankly, it is simply not credible that the on-going DOH study of health impacts for the SGEIS does not include any statistical or factual tabulations or data, instructions to staff that affect the public, or final DOH policy or determinations. Quite simply, scientists deal with factual information. If DOH is in actuality conducting a scientific review, the factual information they are considering and the instructions to staff regarding that consideration should be released to the public.

We will soon know whether the SLPWA succeeds in prying loose information and if so, whether that will force the hand of the governor in either moving ahead with a decision or formalizing the review process. The demand to open records is supported by hundreds of members of the medical community, organizations, elected officials, and individuals. They signed a letter to the governor to open the process for public comment and to disclose “the charge that Dr. Shah gave the three outside reviewers who are assisting him and to view the documents that they have been given.” But I have also heard off the record from some fracking opponents who fear efforts to press Cuomo could backfire by changing a dynamic – the governor’s indecision - that has so far worked in their favor by preserving the status quo.

Some fracking supporters feel a more transparent health review will also work in their favor, and for this reason they are encouraging their adversaries’ efforts. A blog, Flare Alert, posted by the firm of industry attorney Tom West, anticipated this result of the SLPWA complaint:  “If this suit is successful, it may provide the pressure needed to put an end to this otherwise unnecessarily protracted process. The alternative appears to be a further delay of the determination by the administration until after the 2014 gubernatorial election.”  Karen Moreau, executive director of the New York State Petroleum Council, said in a forum at Albany Law School this week that a lack of transparency disserves the public, and that she “applauds the group from Seneca Lake” suing to open the health department’s review.

Although the health review remains vague, the Cuomo administration has selectively released documents that suggest where the administration stands. Their tone has been vague and cautious, but they generally support the notion that Cuomo has no intention of permitting shale gas wells without a faithful attempt to gauge health impacts, and that the decision by other states to proceed without this assessment is folly.

This was the theme of a two-page memo released to the press on Feb. 12 from DOH Commissioner Nirav Shah to DEC Commissioner Joe Martens.  Shah advised that he expected to make a formal recommendation “within a few weeks.” In the meantime, the DOH staff was reviewing three studies evaluating the impact of fracking on public health elsewhere. They include a federal EPA evaluation of risks to groundwater, and two studies evaluating public health indicators in Pennsylvania gas fields, including one by Geisinger Health Systems that will evaluate hundreds of thousands of records of patients. It will be years before the studies are complete, and Shah did not explain how DOH staff might be able to glean useful information from them “within a few weeks.” Although most of us take that phrase to mean 14 days or less, in the place that produces New York policy, it can mean something other than that, and the tone of Shah’s memo to Martens in fact suggested a much longer delay:

The time to ensure the impacts on public health are properly considered is before a state permits drilling. Other states began serious health reviews only after proceeding with widespread HVHF.

In my view, that is not the right approach for New York to take if we are serious that public health is the paramount question in making the HVHF decision. And as Health Commissioner, protecting the public health is my primary job.

He concludes the letter:

From the inception of this process, the Governor's instruction has been to let the science determine the outcome. As a physician and scientist, I could not agree more. Whatever the ultimate decision on HVHF going ahead, New Yorkers can be assured that it will be pursuant to a rigorous review that takes the time to examine the relevant health issues.

A noteworthy figure in this is Richard Jackson, the UCLA health specialist hired to review the state’s work. He has pointed out in his lectures that it's virtually impossible to produce energy without affecting health, pro and con, and trade offs must be known, documented and considered. Although Jackson's contract with the state has expired, Jackson is said to be continuing on a pro bono basis, according to a report from Gannett’s Jon Campbell. And while Jackson is forbidden to talk specifically about the state study, during a webcast earlier this year he generally urged health impact assessments – lengthy formal reviews that include public participation, time-lines and scopes -- for states considering fracking operations: “We need to step up and be much more visible and present and we need to assure that there is a health impact assessment on any proposed hydraulic fracturing or drilling process just as there would be an environmental impact assessment.” (Some of Jackon's specific comments about fracking on his webcast and his overall involvement with the NY's health review was harshly criticized by a group of health professionals for other reasons. More on that here.)

There are many complicating factors, not the least of which is independent funding. At Geisinger, several pilot studies have begun looking into incidences of trauma, perinatal outcomes, asthma and pulmonary disease, according to a report by Ashley Wislock of the Daily Item. But as of this summer, Geisinger had raised only $1.3 million for the first phase of the multi-year study, which is estimated to cost $25 million.

A preliminary report by a team of toxicologists from the University of Pennsylvania found that health concerns were prevalent among drilling communities: 22 percent of the participants in a small pilot study surmise that hydrofracking may be the cause of sinus problems, sleeping difficulties, and gastrointestinal problems. (Another study by the Southwest Pennsylvania Environmental Health Project, found air pollution from gas processing operations to be more of a concern than water pollution for people who felt sick from shale gas development.) But understanding the relationship between drilling and health with any degree of clarity and precision will take years. It will also take funding not rooted in special interests or at least which comes with full disclosure, and that kind of funding is getting scarce.

In short, a year after Martens announced he would shore up the DEC’s work with a health review, the scientific landscape has gotten more complicated, details of that review remain under wraps, and New York’s fracking future looks more capricious than ever. It remains to be seen whether the SLPWA demand to open records will provide a catalyst for movement, and if so in what direction.